Journal of Applied Science and Engineering

Published by Tamkang University Press


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Ying Wang1, Chien-Chang Chou This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.2 and Gi-Tae Yeo1

1Graduate School of Logistics, Incheon National University, Yeonsu-Gu, Incheon 406-840, Korea
2Department of Shipping Technology, National Kaohsiung Marine University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan 805, R.O.C.


Received: September 7, 2011
Accepted: January 26, 2013
Publication Date: June 1, 2013

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The forecasting of container volumes is a critical component in both the nation’s economy and the development of ports. This paper attempts to generate a model for forecasting container volumes at ports using system dynamics to provide higher forecasting accuracy. First, a regression model and system dynamics model are employed to forecast the container volume in Taiwan, the average forecasting error shows that the system dynamics model has higher forecasting ability. Second, data for the period 1990-2008 in Taiwan and Korea are used to forecast the container volumes for 2016. The total container volumes come from the import/export container volume and transshipment container volume. The input data are divided into two sets total and import/export according to the properties of the port or nation. By comparing the error of the result using the two sets of input data, the system dynamics model in this paper is improved and is shown to be a good method for forecasting container volumes at different ports or nations in the world.

Keywords: Forecast, System Dynamics, Regression Model, Vensim Simulation Tool


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