Climate Change and Irrigation Water: A Vulnerability Assessment of Egypt's Governorates

Abdelhamid  Ads; Santosh Murlidhar  Pingale; Deepak  Khare

doi:10.6180/jase.202409_27(9).0014

Climate Change and Irrigation Water: A Vulnerability Assessment of Egypt's Governorates

Environmental Engineering Water Resources Engineering

Abdelhamid Ads^1,2This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it., Santosh Murlidhar Pingale³, and Deepak Khare¹

¹Department of Water Resources Development & Management, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Roorkee, Uttarakhand, India, 247667

²Water Management Research Institute, National Water Research Center, Egypt

³Hydrological Investigations Division, National Institute of Hydrology Roorkee, India, 247667

Received: May 14, 2023
Accepted: October 22, 2023
Publication Date: December 16, 2023

Copyright The Author(s). This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY 4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are cited.

Download Citation: ||https://doi.org/10.6180/jase.202409_27(9).0014

The mounting impact of climate change on the livelihoods and agricultural sectors of both developed and developing nations underscores the need to identify and prioritize the regions and communities that are most vulnerable to its effects at a sub-national level. In this regard, irrigation technologies represent a highly recommended adaptation option to effectively address the proposed changes. Given the limited funding available for climate change adaptation plans in Egypt, it is essential to determine the most vulnerable governorate in terms of Irrigation Water Requirements (IWR) to climate change. The main objective of this study is to evaluate the vulnerability of Irrigation Water Requirements (IWR) to the effects of climate change at the governorate level. To accomplish this objective, we employed reference evapotranspiration (ET_o) and precipitation change as exposure factors, in addition to sensitivity factors such as soil type and the economic value of irrigation water. Furthermore, we considered adaptive capacity factors, including poverty, education, and organizational capacity. To enhance the robustness of our results, we incorporated data from six different climate models under various shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios (namely, SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585) for the period spanning 2040 to 2060. Based on the research results, the central and northern regions of the country were found to exhibit the greatest and most significant degrees of vulnerability across nine governorates. Meanwhile, four governorates demonstrated the lowest vulnerability degrees under the climate change scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP370), and Aswan was identified as having the lowest vulnerability degree under the SSP585 scenario. These findings hold significant value for informing decision-making processes by pinpointing the areas of highest vulnerability and facilitating the implementation of effective mitigation strategies.

Keywords: Climate change, Irrigation water requirement, Vulnerability, SSP scenarios, Egypt

[1] M. Oppenheimer and C. et al. Emergent risks and key vulnerabilities. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 2014, 1039–1099.
[2] F. Giorgi, (2006) “Climate change hot-spots" Geophysical Research Letters 33(8): 1–4. DOI: 10.1029/2006GL025734.
[3] A. N. Yassen and N. et al., (2020) “Impact of climate change on reference evapotranspiration in Egypt" Catena 194(April 2019): 104711. DOI: 10.1016/j.catena.2020.104711.
[4] Saleh Zakaria, Nadhir Al-Ansari, and Seven Knutsson, (2013) “Historical and Future Climatic Change Scenarios for Temperature and Rainfall for Iraq" Journal of Civil Engineering and Architecture 7(12): DOI: 10.17265/1934-7359/2013.12.012.
[5] M. o. F. Affairs. Climate Change Profile Egypt. Tech. rep. July. 2018, 14.
[6] W. S. Adger and A. et al. “Assessment of adaptation practices, options, constraints and capacity.Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change”. In: Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 717-743. 2007, 63–81. DOI: 10.1007/978-1-349-02250-2_5.
[7] C. Bouroncle and I. et al., (2017) “Mapping climate change adaptive capacity and vulnerability of smallholder agricultural livelihoods in Central America: ranking and descriptive approaches to support adaptation strategies" Climatic Change 141(1): 123–137. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1792-0.
[8] S. Tao and X. et al., (2011) “Research progress in agricultural vulnerability to climate change" Advances in Climate Change Research 2(4): 203–210. DOI: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2011.00203.
[9] H. M. Füssel, (2007) “Vulnerability: A generally applicable conceptual framework for climate change research" Global Environmental Change 17(2): 155–167. DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.05.002.
[10] O. Žurovec and C. et al., (2017) ˇ “Quantitative assessment of vulnerability to climate change in rural municipalities of Bosnia and Herzegovina" Sustainability,MDPI 9(7): 1–18. DOI: 10.3390/su9071208.
[11] IPCC, (2001) “Working Group II, Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability": 1042.
[12] M. Oppenheimer, M. Campos, R. Warren, J. Birkmann, G. Luber, B. O’Neill, K. Takahashi, M. Brklacich, S. Semenov, R. Licker, et al. “Emergent risks and key vulnerabilities”. In: Climate change 2014 impacts, adaptation and vulnerability: part a: global and sectoral aspects. Cambridge University Press, 2015, 1039–1100.
[13] MWRI, (2014) “Water Scarcity in Egypt: The Urgent Need for Regional Cooperation among the Nile Basin Countries" Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation (water scaricity): 1–5.
[14] P. Sector. National Water Resource Plan 2017. Tech. rep. Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation, 2005.
[15] IPCC, (2014) “Climate Change 2014 Synthesis Report: Summary Chapter for Policymakers" Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: 31. DOI: 10.1017/CBO9781107415324. arXiv: arXiv:1011.1669v3.
[16] M. E. Elshamy and S. et al., (2009) “Impacts of climate change on Blue Nile flows using bias-corrected GCM scenarios" Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 13(5): 551–565. DOI: 10.5194/hess-13-551-2009.
[17] A. F. Abou-Hadid. Assessment of Impacts , Adaptation , and Vulnerability to Climate Change in North Africa : Food Production and Water Resources. Tech. rep. 2006, 127.
[18] EEAA. Egypt Second National Communication Under the United Nations Framework Convention on climate chnage. Tech. rep. 2010.
[19] H. M. Eid and E.-M. et al. Assessing the economic impacts of climate change on agriculture in Egypt: a Ricardian approach. Tech. rep. 16. 2007.
[20] FAO. Country profile - Egypt - Aquatstat. Tech. rep. 2016.
[21] CAPMAS. Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics. Tech. rep. 2021. DOI: geoportal.capmas.gov.eg.
[22] F. A. Khalil and O. et al. “Determination of agroclimatic zones in egypt using a robust statistical procedure”. In: 2011.
[23] IPCC, (2014) “Climate Change 2014 Synthesis Report: Summary Chapter for Policymakers" Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: 31. DOI: 10.1017/CBO9781107415324. arXiv: arXiv:1011.1669v3.
[24] K. Fritzsche and S. et al. The vulnerability sourcebook: Concept and guidelines for standardised vulnerability assessments. Tech. rep. 2014, 171.
[25] Allen and L. S. e. a. Pereira, (1998) “FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper No. 56, Crop Evapotranspiration" Irrigation and Drainage 300(56): 300. DOI: 10.1016/j.eja.2010.12.001.
[26] D. M. Hershfield, (1964) “Effective rainfall and irrigation water requirements" Journal of the Irrigation and Drainage Division 90(2): 33–47. DOI: https: //doi.org/10.1061/JRCEA4.000030.
[27] J. Shalhevet and B. et al., (1978) “Crop water requirement in relation to climate and soil" Soil Science 125(4): 240–247.
[28] I. K. El-Gafy and E.-G. et al., (2013) “Decision support system to maximize economic value of irrigation water at the Egyptian governorates meanwhile reducing the national food gap" Water Science 27(54): 1–18. DOI: https: //doi.org/10.1016/j.wsj.2013.12.001.
[29] S. C. S. United States, Department of Agriculture, (1993) “Irrigation Water Requirements" Part 623 National Engineering Handbook (September 1993): 750–750. DOI: 10.1007/978-3-642-41714-6_91866.
[30] M. Machibya and M. et al. Draft irrigation efficiency and productivity manual - Tools for irrigation professionals and practitioners. Tech. rep. May. 2004, 54.
[31] I. El-gafy and R. et al., (2014) “Economic Irrigation Water Productivity Maps For Egyptian Governorates" E-WAter:
[32] I. El-Gafy and E.-G. et al., (2012) “Decision support system for economic value of irrigation water" Applied Water Science 2(2): 63–76. DOI: 10.1007/s13201-012-0029-2.
[33] S. E. Fick and H. et al., (2017) “WorldClim 2: new 1-km spatial resolution climate surfaces for global land areas" International Journal of Climatology 37(12): 4302–4315. DOI: 10.1002/joc.5086.
[34] K. Riahi and van Vuuren et al., (2017) “The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview" Global Environmental Change 42: 153–168. DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009.
[35] M. Meinshausen and N. et al., (2020) “The SSP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions to 2500" Geoscientific Model Development, EGU: 1–77. DOI: 10.5194/gmd-2019-222.
[36] B. C. O’Neill and K. et al., (2014) “A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways" Climatic change 122: 387–400. DOI: https: //doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0905-2.
[37] T. Wu, Y. Lu, and F. et al., (2019) “The Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC-CSM): The main progress from CMIP5 to CMIP6" Geoscientific Model Development 12(4): 1573–1600. DOI: 10.5194/gmd12-1573-2019.
[38] N. C. Swart and C. et al., (2019) “The Canadian Earth System Model version 5 (CanESM5.0.3)" Geoscientific Model Development 12(11): 4823–4873. DOI: 10.5194/gmd-12-4823-2019.
[39] O. Boucher and S. et al., (2020) “Presentation and Evaluation of the IPSL-CM6A-LR Climate Model" Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems 12(7): 1–52. DOI: 10.1029/2019MS002010.
[40] T. Hajima and W. et al., (2020) “Development of the MIROC-ES2L Earth system model and the evaluation of biogeochemical processes and feedbacks" Geoscientific Model Development 13(5): 2197–2244. DOI: 10.5194/ gmd-13-2197-2020.
[41] S. Yukimoto and K. al., (2019) “The meteorological research institute Earth system model version 2.0, MRIESM2.0: Description and basic evaluation of the physical component" Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan 97(5): 931–965. DOI: 10.2151/jmsj.2019-051.
[42] G. El Afandi and A. et al., (2015) “Evaluation of Reference Evapotranspiration Equations under Current Climate Conditions of Egypt" Turkish Journal of Agriculture - Food Science and Technology 3(10): 819.
[43] F. Nachtergaele and V. et al., (2009) “Harmonized World Soil Database" Food and Agric Organization of the UN (FAO); International Inst. for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA); ISRIC-World Soil Information; Inst of Soil Science- Chinese Acad of Sciences (ISS-CAS); EC-Joint Research Centre (JRC):
[44] S. Datta and T. et al. Understanding Soil Water Content and Thresholds for Irrigation Management. Tech. rep. BAE-1537. 2017.
[45] UNDP. Human Development Report 1990. Concept and Measurement of Human Development. Tech. rep. 1990, 189.
[46] N. A. Marshall and M. et al. A framework for social adaptation to climate change. Tech. rep. 2010.
[47] L. Parker and B. et al., (2019) “Vulnerability of the agricultural sector to climate change : The development of a pan- tropical Climate Risk Vulnerability Assessment to inform sub-national decision making" PLoS ONE 14(3): e0213641: 1–25. DOI: https: //doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0213641.
[48] K. O’Brien and L. et al., (2004) “Mapping vulnerability to multiple stressors: Climate change and globalization in India" Global Environmental Change 14(4): 303–313. DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2004.01.001.
[49] H. M. Füssel and K. et al., (2006) “Climate change vulnerability assessments: An evolution of conceptual thinking" Climatic Change 75(3): 301–329. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-006-0329-3.
[50] F. A. A. and M. et al., (2014) “GIS Tool for Distribution Reference Evapotranspiration under Climate Change in Egypt" International Journal of Plant & Soil Science 3(6): 575–588. DOI: 10.9734/ijpss/2014/8172.
[51] M. Abdrabbo and A. e. a. Farag, (2015) “Implementing of RCPs Scenarios for the Prediction of Evapotranspiration in Egypt" International Journal of Plant & Soil Science 6(1): 50–63. DOI: 10.9734/ijpss/2015/12721.
[52] H. Liu and Z. et al., (2014) “Sensitivity analysis of reference evapotranspiration (ETo) to climate change in Beijing, China" Desalination and Water Treatment 52(13-15): 2799–2804. DOI: 10.1080/19443994.2013.862030.
[53] I. G. François Molle and D. E. E.-A. et al., “Irrigation Efficiency and the Nile Delta Water Balance":
[54] T. Lung and L. et al., (2013) “A multi-hazard regional level impact assessment for Europe combining indicators of climatic and non-climatic change" Global Environmental Change 23(2): 522–536. DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.11.009.
[55] H.-M. Füssel. Review and quantitative analysis of indices of climate change exposure, adaptive capacity, sensitivity, and impacts. Tech. rep. 2010, 34.
[56] S. Torresan and A. e. a. Critto, (2012) “Assessment of coastal vulnerability to climate change hazards at the regional scale: The case study of the North Adriatic Sea" Natural Hazards and Earth System Science 12(7): 2347–2368. DOI: 10.5194/nhess-12-2347-2012.