Abdelhamid Ads1,2This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it., Santosh Murlidhar Pingale3, and Deepak Khare1
1Department of Water Resources Development & Management, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Roorkee, Uttarakhand, India, 247667
2Water Management Research Institute, National Water Research Center, Egypt
3Hydrological Investigations Division, National Institute of Hydrology Roorkee, India, 247667
Received: May 14, 2023 Accepted: October 22, 2023 Publication Date: December 16, 2023
Copyright The Author(s). This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY 4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are cited.
The mounting impact of climate change on the livelihoods and agricultural sectors of both developed and developing nations underscores the need to identify and prioritize the regions and communities that are most vulnerable to its effects at a sub-national level. In this regard, irrigation technologies represent a highly recommended adaptation option to effectively address the proposed changes. Given the limited funding available for climate change adaptation plans in Egypt, it is essential to determine the most vulnerable governorate in terms of Irrigation Water Requirements (IWR) to climate change. The main objective of this study is to evaluate the vulnerability of Irrigation Water Requirements (IWR) to the effects of climate change at the governorate level. To accomplish this objective, we employed reference evapotranspiration (ETo) and precipitation change as exposure factors, in addition to sensitivity factors such as soil type and the economic value of irrigation water. Furthermore, we considered adaptive capacity factors, including poverty, education, and organizational capacity. To enhance the robustness of our results, we incorporated data from six different climate models under various shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios (namely, SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585) for the period spanning 2040 to 2060. Based on the research results, the central and northern regions of the country were found to exhibit the greatest and most significant degrees of vulnerability across nine governorates. Meanwhile, four governorates demonstrated the lowest vulnerability degrees under the climate change scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP370), and Aswan was identified as having the lowest vulnerability degree under the SSP585 scenario. These findings hold significant value for informing decision-making processes by pinpointing the areas of highest vulnerability and facilitating the implementation of effective mitigation strategies.
Keywords: Climate change, Irrigation water requirement, Vulnerability, SSP scenarios, Egypt
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